Political analyst Professor Zamo Mbandlwa has described the South African Communist Party’s stance toward the African National Congress as that of “jumping off a sinking ship” before it completely sinks, amid an escalating feud over dual membership.
On Thursday, ANC Secretary General Fikile Mbalula set a 10-day countdown demanding that dual membership holders choose between the ANC and the SACP ahead of the 2026 local government elections. Mbalula’s message, in the analyst’s words, “was quite blunt: You cannot serve two bosses.”
However, the South African Communist Party is not backing down. SACP General Secretary Solly Mapaila fired back, labeling the move an administrative witch hunt and a serious anti-communist act. Mapaila went as far as instructing SACP members to flatly ignore the ultimatum, calling it a desperate attempt to subordinate an ally that has shed blood alongside the ANC for decades.
Mbalula’s 10-day ultimatum ends on May 3rd.
Speaking about what will happen on day 11, Professor Mbandlwa said the ANC and SACP are “the same coin with different sides,” making it very difficult for the ANC to deal with the matter. He noted that many dual members play significant roles in both parties and in government.
The analyst said the ANC is “very pressed by chronological events” and is slowly losing ground-level support, needing to use every tool to regain it. He warned that if SACP leaders and members say they will not campaign for the ANC, that would be “a very serious downfall.”
Professor Mbandlwa pointed out that the SACP is not in government. If dual members choose to support the SACP, they would have to relinquish their government positions, including those serving as councillors or premiers.
He noted that the ANC was “very strategic” to hold a special National Executive Committee meeting on April 10th – a significant date for the SACP, marking the anniversary of the 1993 assassination of former SACP general secretary Chris Hani. The analyst commended the ANC’s “soft approach” compared to what he called the SACP’s “very radical approach.”
Professor Mbandlwa warned that both parties will lose out in upcoming elections, as voters will be confused about whom to support. He noted the ANC’s declining voter support over the past decade across local, provincial, and national elections.
Asked whether the SACP could realistically form a coalition against the ANC with parties like the Democratic Alliance, the professor said that based on the SACP’s position in 2024 – when it criticised the ANC for forming a coalition with the DA and urged the ANC to work with left-leaning parties like the MK Party and the EFF – he does not believe the SACP would choose the DA over the ANC for coalition partnerships.
On the irony of the ultimatum coming near the 32nd anniversary of South Africa’s democracy, Professor Mbandlwa said the parties will not be able to work together to celebrate, as “they are speaking on different tongues.”
He said there has always been room for common ground, adding that he does not believe stalwarts from both parties were called to address the issues. However, he suggested that after the local government elections, if both parties are losing, stalwarts may need to come together.
Professor Mbandlwa concluded that the SACP has repeatedly said “the ship is sinking because the ANC do not listen to what people are saying.” He added: “This is another form of them to say before the ship sinks properly or completely, then let’s jump off the ship and find another way of saving people in South Africa.”